President Saleh Irrational, Will Use Military Aid to Murder More Civilians by Jane Novak

[OIPWHR-M.T.]

President Saleh is an extremely irrational player, and has never learned from his mistakes. Maybe thirty years in power makes you go nuts. Look at Khadaffi… Saleh makes the same plays over and over, with the same results. In addition, the fractured nature of the regime means the government is often at odds with itself. Its important to keep in mind the Yemeni government tactics in dealing with internal civil unrest. In the south, as HRW recently found, the Yemeni government is shooting peaceful protesters in the head and engaging in mass arrests, and has been for well over a year. Dozens have been killed. In the north, the Yemeni military is bombing civilian areas on a regular basis and blocking the delivery of international aid, creating a humanitarian crisis in Sa’ada, long called “Yemen’s Darfur.” Do we want to equpt this slaughter? Any arms or equipment to Saleh will go straight to Sa’ada or Aden, with some show raids on al Qaeda, big announcements and underlings rounded up as the main facilitators and figure heads escape unmolested as they have done for years. WSJ: But Mr. Saleh is struggling with two rebellious provinces, dwindling financial resources and a significant weakening of his once-strong influence over Islamists in his country. His courting has been a source of debate within the administration: Some officials are concerned he is more interested in seeking American aid to crush local insurgencies than target Islamist militants. “President Saleh is not a consistent and rational player,” said another senior military official. “That’s the other major worry we have there: What will he do for himself versus what he’s doing against al Qaeda.” Yemen’s government on Tuesday reiterated its desire for more foreign military aid, with foreign minister Abu Bakr al Qirbi telling the British Broadcasting Corp. that Yemen’s battle is being undermined by a lack of financial and military support. The Obama administration has praised Mr. Saleh’s government in recent weeks for intensifying its campaign against al Qaeda, which includes two major offenses against suspected terrorist camps earlier this month. Mr. Saleh, 63 years old, reiterated his support in combating terror in a telephone call to President Barack Obama two weeks ago, according to the state-run Yemeni press agency. But the U.S. has been frustrated by his unwillingness to open a serious dialogue with the Houthi rebels in the north, a move officials believe would allow Mr. Saleh to focus his attention on al Qaeda. According to the former military official, Mr. Saleh has asked for weapons that he could use against indigenous rebels, including hundreds of tanks and Humvees. Sana’a has claimed the Houthi forces are receiving arms and funding from Shiite Iran. The Obama administration says it has found no such evidence. U.S. Looks to Intensify Yemen Campaign By PETER SPIEGEL, JAY SOLOMON and MARGARET COKER The Obama administration is likely to intensify pressure on Yemen's president to focus his security forces against al Qaeda militants, following claims that the attempted Christmas Day airline bombing originated there, according to U.S. officials. Al Qaeda's Threat From Yemen View Slideshow Karim Ben Khelifa for The Wall Street Journal Members of the Yemeni army trained in the mountains east of Sana'a in April. The Fight in Yemen View Interactive More interactive graphics and photos More on Yemen WSJ.com/Mideast: News, video, graphics The U.S. also is discussing increasing its counterterrorism support to Yemen from $70 million this year to as much as $190 million in 2010, according to a senior military official. U.S. security policy toward Yemen had been increasingly focused on President Ali Abdullah Saleh even before the botched attack, officials said. His government in recent months has shown willingness to coordinate with the Obama administration in counterterrorism operations within his country. "We are acting in response to threats to the U.S.," said Denis McDonough, the White House's deputy national-security advisor, adding that the administration will continue to "address these threats where they arise." But Mr. Saleh is struggling with two rebellious provinces, dwindling financial resources and a significant weakening of his once-strong influence over Islamists in his country. His courting has been a source of debate within the administration: Some officials are concerned he is more interested in seeking American aid to crush local insurgencies than target Islamist militants. "President Saleh is not a consistent and rational player," said another senior military official. "That's the other major worry we have there: What will he do for himself versus what he's doing against al Qaeda." Yemen's government on Tuesday reiterated its desire for more foreign military aid, with foreign minister Abu Bakr al Qirbi telling the British Broadcasting Corp. that Yemen's battle is being undermined by a lack of financial and military support. The Obama administration has praised Mr. Saleh's government in recent weeks for intensifying its campaign against al Qaeda, which includes two major offenses against suspected terrorist camps earlier this month. Mr. Saleh, 63 years old, reiterated his support in combating terror in a telephone call to President Barack Obama two weeks ago, according to the state-run Yemeni press agency. But the U.S. has been frustrated by his unwillingness to open a serious dialogue with the Houthi rebels in the north, a move officials believe would allow Mr. Saleh to focus his attention on al Qaeda. According to the former military official, Mr. Saleh has asked for weapons that he could use against indigenous rebels, including hundreds of tanks and Humvees. Sana'a has claimed the Houthi forces are receiving arms and funding from Shiite Iran. The Obama administration says it has found no such evidence. U.S. officials say Yemen is nearly out of oil exports and facing severe water shortages. Roughly 35% of Yemen's adult population is unemployed. Development projects pursued by U.S., European and Arab donors have been undercut by security threats, U.S. officials say. In the 1990s Yemen, much like Saudi Arabia, re-established ties with and in some cases welcomed back Islamist militants who were returning from fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan. Mr. Saleh, mirroring public opinion, treated them as heroes, and gave many of them places in the country's military and security forces. The army used these Afghan veterans to help put down a fresh revolt from southern opposition leaders in 1994. In 2006, U.S. officials became alarmed that Mr. Saleh's political deals risked undermining his support for combating terrorism when 26 al Qaeda militants, including the convicted mastermind of the 2000 attack on the USS Cole, escaped from a Yemeni jail. According to some reports, the militants received assistance from inside Yemen's security forces.